The Muck of the Draw

American soccer fans breathed a huge sigh of relief last month when the United States National Team were drawn against future foes England, Algeria, and Slovenia in the group stages for this summer’s World Cup in South Africa. The American’s, who had the great misfortune of being drawn into last World Cup’s Group of Death against heavy-hitters Italy, Czech Republic, and Ghana (a group in which USA finished in the basement with a mere point), finally look to be in a prime position to advance past the group stages for the first time since 2002 when they were runners up to South Korea. But for Team USA and our country backing them, a little word of advice: let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.

It was only eight years ago when a highly-powerful French side had the proverbial rug pulled out from under them by a plucky Senegalese team who set the tone for myriad surprises at the 2002 World Cup. The defending champions at the time who were gushing with talent boasting the likes of Zidane, Henry, and Vieira, had been heralded as one of the favorites to reclaim the elusive crown in Korea and Japan, only to watch in horror as the team imploded on the pitch in the far east. Not only did Les Bleus suffer a humiliating opening 1-0 loss to underdog Senegal, but they were harnessed with the ignominy of being denied a single goal in all three group stage games, drawing 0-0 with Uruguay and bowing out 2-0 to eventual group-winners Denmark. Group A at the 2002 World Cup was by no means an easy one, but surely France should have done much better (they could have at least scored a goal!)

And therein lays the threat to the Americans before they head to Rustenburg for their kick-off clash with England on June 12. While the motherland is the favorite to dispose of the United States, Algeria and Slovenia are not, which may have some Americans already bypassing the group stage and setting their sights on the knockout rounds. The glaring issue here, of course, is that Bob Bradley’s squad cannot advance past the group stage without actually playing these games, and while the match with England will almost certainly result in a loss or a draw for the United States, supposed-pushovers Algeria and Slovenia may prove to be trickier tests than originally expected.

The names Antar Yahia and Zlatko Dedič might not mean anything to American supporters now, but the two savvy veterans for Algeria and Slovenia, respectively, are already beginning to creep into the spotlight, their countries in tow. The two forwards played key roles in booking their country’s hotel rooms in South Africa in qualifying, most notably in their team’s final matches. Yahia found the back of the net against Egypt in Africa’s Group C tiebreaker that secured the 1-0 win and a place in the Finals, while Dedič managed to flick one past Russian keeper Igor Akinfeev to secure Slovenia’s spot with a 2-2 aggregate victory on away goals over Guus Hiddink’s squad this past November in Maribor.

Still, both Algeria and Slovenia have failed to win the respect they deserve, many experts convinced that England and the United States will have little trouble against either side. What some American supporters have failed to realize, however, is that their group with England, Algeria, and Slovenia could have very easily been England, Egypt, and Russia—Yahia and Dedič’s sides having won by the smallest of margins—undeniably a far more daunting group. Yet, it was Algeria who beat Egypt and Slovenia who beat Russia, and while the best team doesn’t always win, the United States may live to regret taking both nations so lightly.

The United States National Team can hardly be placed in the same elite boat as France despite the increasingly pallid string of performances by Raymond Domenech’s men in qualifying (they certainly do not deserve a hand!), and Landon Donovan & Co.’s impressive run at last summer’s Confederations Cup. But the lessons to be learned from the 2002 France National Team are invaluable to all squads, but especially to this year’s team USA: be wary of the northern African teams and the seemingly innocuous European nations, and gosh darn it, please, please, please don’t get too cocky. If they do, by the end of the group stages the Americans may sadly find that their toughest opponent wasn’t England, Algeria or Slovenia, but in fact, themselves.